Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
